Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.017142 0.019410 0.021868 0.024732 0.027977 0.031540 0.035754
2025-08-24 0.013576 0.016699 0.020375 0.025024 0.030753 0.037590 0.046382
2025-08-31 0.011402 0.014840 0.019121 0.024849 0.032326 0.041772 0.054645
2025-09-07 0.010166 0.013858 0.018672 0.025419 0.034652 0.046879 0.064357
2025-09-14 0.008745 0.012404 0.017369 0.024611 0.034935 0.049172 0.070384
2025-09-21 0.007766 0.011415 0.016544 0.024298 0.035764 0.052162 0.077522
2025-09-28 0.006838 0.010381 0.015524 0.023556 0.035836 0.053991 0.083037
2025-10-05 0.006494 0.010162 0.015649 0.024486 0.038425 0.059686 0.094805
2025-10-12 0.006110 0.009835 0.015567 0.025063 0.040490 0.064714 0.105946
2025-10-19 0.005786 0.009565 0.015536 0.025699 0.042670 0.070066 0.118036
2025-10-26 0.005338 0.009049 0.015060 0.025552 0.043537 0.073332 0.126916
2025-11-02 0.004972 0.008631 0.014703 0.025560 0.044638 0.077040 0.136822
2025-11-09 0.004549 0.008086 0.014096 0.025107 0.044941 0.079474 0.144836
2025-11-16 0.004292 0.007810 0.013928 0.025407 0.046596 0.084400 0.157783
2025-11-23 0.003987 0.007418 0.013519 0.025229 0.047354 0.087761 0.168113
2025-11-30 0.003821 0.007266 0.013526 0.025808 0.049550 0.093911 0.184231
2025-12-07 0.003479 0.006753 0.012824 0.024987 0.049010 0.094874 0.190359
2025-12-14 0.003236 0.006406 0.012405 0.024669 0.049405 0.097632 0.200245
2025-12-21 0.002962 0.005977 0.011793 0.023916 0.048865 0.098500 0.206343
2025-12-28 0.002906 0.005978 0.012018 0.024860 0.051831 0.106593 0.228122
2026-01-04 0.002813 0.005895 0.012069 0.025447 0.054102 0.113443 0.247859
2026-01-11 0.002731 0.005828 0.012146 0.026092 0.056544 0.120833 0.269409
2026-01-18 0.002577 0.005596 0.011862 0.025943 0.057261 0.124614 0.283292